Somalia’s hunger crisis and flood risk
International Conflicts & Security
Last updated
The big picture
Somalia’s food crisis has developed through repeated droughts, conflict and the loss of livelihoods. Families who have already fled their homes have fewer resources to absorb another shock. The latest food-security assessment warns that expected El Niño-related flooding could make conditions worse during the final months of 2026, damaging crops, cutting access to markets and forcing further displacement. The warning is especially serious for displaced people around Baidoa. A risk of famine is not the same as a declaration that famine is already occurring: the assessment describes a dangerous outcome under a worse combination of flooding and inadequate assistance. Preventing that outcome requires action before the forecast becomes reality.
Where things stand
The September assessment projects 5.4 million people facing crisis-level hunger or worse in October–December. It identifies a risk of famine among displaced people in Baidoa under a plausible worst-case scenario. These are forward-looking estimates with stated conditions, not a confirmed count of people already experiencing area-wide famine.
Key facts
- Household catastrophe and an area-wide famine classification are related but different measures.
- Flooding can worsen hunger by destroying livelihoods and blocking access, even after periods of drought.
- The forecast estimates 1.92 million young children will need treatment for acute malnutrition through June 2027.
How we got here
The July–September assessment period begins with widespread high levels of food insecurity.
Somalia’s government and the UN warn about hunger, flooding and inadequate funding.
The assessment’s October–December projection period begins; risks depend on weather and assistance.
What happens next
No further event was confirmed at the last update.
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